Exports likely buoyed S.Korea GDP growth in Q4, braking China dims outlook: Reuters poll

By Vivek Mishra

BENGALURU (Reuters) – South Korea’s financial system seemingly accelerated within the final quarter, buoyed by sturdy exports and investments, however an financial slowdown in China and surging COVID-19 circumstances pose a major danger, a Reuters ballot discovered.

Asia’s fourth-largest financial system is predicted to have expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.9% within the fourth quarter, based on the median forecast of 10 economists, up from a 0.3% rise within the previous quarter.

Nonetheless, the survey confirmed development in annual phrases seemingly slowed to a median 3.7%, primarily based on a better pattern of 16 economists, from 4.0% within the third quarter, partly because of the above-trend growth registered within the comparable interval in 2020.

The information might be launched on Jan. 25.

“It’s extremely possible personal consumption has weakened considerably because of the re-spread of the COVID-19 in Korea, however strong exports and investments supported development in This fall,” mentioned Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Monetary Funding in Seoul.

South Korea’s restoration from a pandemic-induced financial stoop has been largely pushed by sturdy exports, which expanded at their quickest tempo in 11 years in 2021. By vacation spot, exports to China, the USA and the European Union rose 22.9%, 29.4% and 33.9%, respectively.

However an upsurge in COVID-19 circumstances, the waning results of pandemic-related stimulus and an financial slowdown in China, the nation’s largest commerce and funding companion, will weigh closely on the financial system this 12 months and subsequent.

“Exports have continued to be a pillar of power, however are seemingly to supply a smaller enhance to development going ahead. The continuing slowdown in China poses one other headwind,” wrote Krystal Tan, an economist at ANZ in Singapore.

A separate Reuters ballot printed every week in the past confirmed development averaging 3.9% in 2021. It was then anticipated to ease to 2.9% in 2022 and a couple of.5% in 2023.

(Reporting by Vivek Mishra; Polling by Devayani Sathyan and Tushar Goenka in BENGALURU and Jihoon Lee in SEOUL; Enhancing by Alex Richardson)