Evaluation-Hong Kong’s ‘zero-COVID’ success now worsens strains of Omicron spike

By Farah Grasp

HONG KONG (Reuters) -Hong Kong till just lately had an enviable file battling COVID-19, however as an Omicron wave now overwhelms town, the steps that saved lives are making life insufferable for a lot of of its 7.4 million individuals.

Like an immune system overreacting and harming the individual it’s meant to guard, the “dynamic zero-COVID” insurance policies that had crushed the virus in Hong Kong have contributed to present woes, specialists say. Sufferers lie in beds in chilly, moist parking tons outdoors overflowing hospitals, isolation amenities are filling up and hundreds queue for hours outdoors testing venues.

A 60-fold spike in each day infections this month prompted the federal government just lately to switch its COVID-eradication insurance policies, however the authorities proceed aiming to wipe out the virus. The affect of zero tolerance will stay for a while, epidemiologists say.

Hong Kong’s strict pandemic insurance policies have restricted coronavirus infections to round 40,000 with 259 deaths, far fewer than in different main cities. Asian rival Singapore, with 5.7 million individuals, has reported greater than half 1,000,000 circumstances and a few 900 deaths.

Beneath zero-COVID, Hong Kong authorities basically closed the border and hospitalised even asymptomatic coronavirus-positive individuals and remoted shut contacts with contaminated individuals. An individual displaying little or no signs might spend weeks in hospital, then transfer to an isolation facility for a number of extra weeks earlier than being allowed to return to regular life.

In return, most individuals within the world monetary hub might go about their work and social lives with few restrictions.

The federal government chief, Chief Govt Carrie Lam, has stated Hong Kong “can not give up to the virus” and that containing the outbreak “is now of paramount significance”, as she seeks the individuals’s understanding for inconveniences brought on by the insurance policies.

“Elimination was initially the very best technique for Hong Kong,” however is now not applicable, stated Dr David Owens, a founding companion of OT&P clinic.

“As soon as efficient vaccinations grew to become obtainable, the unfavourable framing and coverage round zero-covid adversely impacted vaccination charges, particularly within the susceptible,” he stated. “The messaging was not solely unscientific, it paradoxically elevated the chance to inhabitants well being.”

The federal government didn’t reply to a request for touch upon whether or not its zero-covid coverage had contributed to the present drawback.

Because the extremely transmissible COVID variant checks the healthcare system and public endurance, the authorities have made a refined transition from elimination to mitigation, adjusting insurance policies incessantly, primarily based on the severity of signs and availability of beds and isolation rooms.

Asymptomatic carriers might now go to quarantine amenities and even residence and shut contacts might isolate at residence.

‘INSANE AND CRUEL’

However the healthcare system is stretched to breaking as infections soar.

Plans for mass-testing from subsequent month will possible be ineffective, some epidemiologists say, with no full mainland-style metropolis lockdown – one thing Lam has dominated out.

“Zero-COVID can’t final ceaselessly,” stated Peter Collignon, professor of microbiology on the Australian Nationwide College. Sticking to the objective “can result in poor useful resource allocation and priorities.”

Tracing, testing, remedy and quarantine assets nonetheless goal each an infection as a substitute of prioritising high-risk teams, such because the aged, inflicting widespread frustration.

Zero-COVID messaging, some epidemiologists worry, might encourage complacency and false hopes among the many largely unvaccinated aged that town might once more develop into virus-free and keep that means. Greater than 60% of residents over age 80 haven’t been vaccinated, though some 85% of the whole inhabitants has had at the least one shot.

Bars, gyms and wonder salons are shut, many unable to remain afloat. Round 900,000 college students are out of college, whereas most individuals have resumed working from residence, paying homage to early 2020.

The economic system is prone to contract this yr after final yr’s rebound from town’s longest recession, some analysts say. And the isolation and financial uncertainty threaten a psychological well being epidemic, psychologists say.

“It’s insane and merciless,” stated a 41-year-old resident whose household went via 5 weeks of hospital and authorities quarantine, together with separation from their two toddlers.

“Nowhere else on the earth is doing this.”

Hong Kong has requested Beijing for assist. Greater than 100 million speedy checks are on the best way from the mainland, and the authorities plan to spice up testing, construct extra isolation amenities and guarantee meals provides after vegetable shortages this month.

However some well being specialists forecast each day infections rocketing to as a lot as 30,000 by the top of March from 3,629 on Friday, far outpacing efforts to extend capability.

Epidemiologists on the College of Hong Kong have warned that solely a expensive, months-long, full lockdown would get rid of infections. And whereas that may return town to the place it was in December, Omicron might strike once more, inflicting renewed chaos, they are saying.

Residents, who at first of the pandemic went past authorities suggestions to maintain their family and friends secure, have began to lose religion.

“The federal government needs to realize dynamic zero-COVID, which has mainly made residents extra troubled and confused, as a result of I consider that no virus might be eradicated utterly,” stated 39-year-old Grasp Tang.

(Reporting by Farah Grasp; Further reporting by Joyce Zhou; Enhancing by Marius Zaharia and William Mallard)