Japan must quadruple foreign workers by 2040 to meet growth target – report

By Kantaro Komiya

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan wants about 4 occasions extra international staff by 2040 to attain the expansion path the federal government has outlined in its financial forecast, a bunch of Tokyo-based public assume tanks mentioned on Thursday.

The findings spotlight a rising Japanese reliance on migrant labour to make up for a shrinking inhabitants whereas its potential to draw abroad expertise has been thrown into questioned by strict COVID-19 border controls which have shut out college students and staff.

Japan should enhance the variety of international staff to six.74 million by 2040 to maintain common annual financial progress of 1.24%, primarily based on a bullish “high-growth” state of affairs the federal government has set out in its long-term projection, the assume tanks, together with a analysis arm of the Japan Worldwide Cooperation Company affiliated with the international ministry, mentioned in a report.

The determine could be almost 300% greater than the present 1.72 million international staff, who make up about 2.5% of the workforce.

The research assumed Japan would lose greater than 10% of its home workforce over the following 20 years.

Its inhabitants peaked in 2008 and has declined since then due to its low start price to about 125 million as of final 12 months. The working-age inhabitants is shrinking even faster as a consequence of ageing.

The research additionally took into consideration the inventory of capital, which it assumed would proceed to develop at 1% a 12 months because of funding in automation applied sciences.

The query of international staff and immigration typically has lengthy been delicate on the planet’s third-largest economic system the place many individuals prize ethnic homogeneity.

However strain has mounted to open borders and a scarcity of blue-collar jobs has prompted the federal government to create new visa classes.

About half of Japan’s international staff come from Vietnam and China. The assume tanks mentioned they anticipated the variety of immigrants from locations reminiscent of Cambodia and Myanmar to rise rapidly within the subsequent 20 years.

Nonetheless, the group mentioned the provision of migrant labour would continuously fall in need of demand beneath the present immigration system and Japan should take into account extra long-term visas.

The strict closure of borders to non-Japanese folks due to the coronavirus has raised concern that Japan might lose its repute as a pretty vacation spot for international expertise.

(Reporting by Kantaro Komiya; Enhancing by Robert Birsel; Enhancing by Robert Birsel)